SPECIAL PRE-ELECTION EDITION

November 5^th: The (Not Really) General Election OR  

November 5^th: The General Election is Not as General as You Think

Senate - 57% De facto Elected + 29% Heavily Favored = 86% Mostly Set

House – 44% De facto Elected + 30% Heavily Favored = 74% Mostly Set

Voting is how the people give consent to those that will govern them.  Starting on September 20^th voting begins and the people will decide the make up of the next legislature, except for the races that have already been determined which is 57% of the Senate and 44% of the House of Representatives.  Below you will find an analysis of the districts that have already determined who will serve and a look at the number of districts that have heavily favored incumbents running.

Looking at the Senate.  South Dakota has 35 Legislative Districts and each district elects one Senator.  The Senate has 35 members.  This November, 18 of the 35 seats (51%) have no opponent facing the winner of the primary.  Some had no primary opponent either.  This means there are 17 districts (49%) that have contested elections. 

Looking at the 17 contested races, there are 2 of the 18 races that have experienced incumbent members running against registered independents who have never elected anyone to office.  This means there are 20 people (57%) who are de facto - or nearly de facto - elected. 

In addition to the 18 districts with either no contest or very unlikely opponents, there are 5 that have strong incumbents currently serving in the Senate from these districts and 5 districts with experienced House incumbents, people who have been elected from the district to the House of Representatives.  It is also fair to point out that more incumbents than usual were defeated in the primary election.  Even with this in mind, adding the 10 strong incumbents to the 20 with no contest means as many as 30 of the 35 seats have either completely known outcomes or very likely outcomes.    

Here is the list of the de facto “Senators-elect” that have no opponent in the general election: Symbols – (R)=Republican; (D)=Democrat; (I)=Incumbent; (N)=New

These two districts have incumbents running against people registered as independents that have not elected anyone to office. 

Looking at the races for the House of Representatives.  The same 35 legislative districts elect 2 people each to serve in the House of Representatives.  This results in the House having 70 members, which can mean that it is a bit crowded in there.  When you add a hundred or more lobbyists and a handful of family members, the place can look like a New York subway platform.

There are 13.5 districts that were determined by the primary election because of a lack of any opponent in the fall.  The “half” of a district is because two of the legislative districts have been divided by the courts and each half of those districts elects a single member rather the electing two from the entire districts.  In District 26A, one of the seats has been determined while the other one is being contested.

To start over.  There are 13.5 districts that have already determined winners, meaning 27 members (39%) of the House are set.  That leaves 21.5 districts with contested races for 43 seats.

There are two districts with contested races but have opponents registered with the Libertarian party that has never elected anyone to the legislature. With the extreme likelihood that the registered Republican candidates will be successful, this brings the total of seats in the House that are de facto determined to 31 (44%).  Now there are 19.5 districts with contested races, sort of.

Looking at those 19.5 contested races, which represent 39 seats (56%), there are 10.5 of those districts with strong incumbents running against first time or lesser-known candidates.  This means, under usual circumstances, these 21 incumbents combined with the 31 already de facto-elected results in a total of 52 (74%) of the total House has a good chance of being known already.  It is also fair to point out that more incumbents than usual were defeated in the primary election. 

The following districts have no contested races, meaning these people have been de facto elected: Symbols – (R)=Republican; (D)=Democrat; (I)=Incumbent; (N)=New

These districts have contests with opponents that are registered independents or registered with the Libertarian Party which has had no success in electing anyone to the legislature.

General Election Ballot Measures

There are seven ballot measures being decided on the general election which will be on November 5^th, 2024, with absentee voting starting on September 20^th this year.

The seven ballot measures include four amendments to the Constitution, two proposed laws, and one referendum which is a law that was passed by the legislature that has been referred to the public for a vote.

Here is a list of the titles for the ballot measures:

The Secretary of State has a pamphlet in which the proponents and opponents of each ballot measure make their arguments for and against these proposals.  That pamphlet is available here:  

2024GeneralBQPamphlet.FINALdocx.pdf (sdsos.gov)

The South Dakota Chamber of Commerce and Industry will be evaluating these proposals and will send that analysis to the membership in the near future.  Thank you for your support of this work. 

2024 Economic Outlook Reminder

Event details at https:/bit.ly/4bWHmC5

What do the leading economists know that you should know?

Join the discussion with Joe Santos, Ph.D., Director & Professor of Economics, Ness School of Management, oversees Dykhouse Program, South Dakota State University and Jared McEntaffer, Ph.D., CEO, chief economist,  Dakota Institute for Business and Economic Analysis.

Session moderated by Tony Nour, SVP Relationship Banking, PREMIER Bankcard.

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Tuesday, October 1, 3-6 PM, Sioux Falls Convention Center.  Register for in person or online viewing at https:/bit.ly/4bWHmC5 or visit sdchamber.biz and review the Special Events listing.

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